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What Are Mathematical Football Predictions?

Mathematical football predictions are not just your regular predictions. These are predictions that have been made using numbers, statistics, calculations and mathematical formulas to predict what is may happen during a game of football.

It is not based on the popularity of one team over the other or famous players of the game, but using data.

If two teams are about to take part in football game, an analyst can gather data about their past play and combine those to produce a mathematical estimate of their likely goal total.

Based on this estimation, the analyst can work out the probability of a home win, away win or draw.

The same math can also determine the probability of both teams scoring or the game producing over 2.5 goals.

How We Make Football Predictions Mathematically

Predicting football matches mathematically is not selecting random numbers.

This is how we make mathematical football predictions.

We gather the football data we need first

The first thing we need is some helpful data on the teams involved. For instance, our analyst can gather data on the average number of goals scored by a team, the number of goals conceded, how it performed in its last matches and the average number of goals scored in its league.

Poisson distribution

The Poisson distribution provides an analyst with the ability to work out the probability of a team scoring a specific amount of goals in a game.

Let's say, for example, that a mathematical model predicts the team will score an average of 1.5 goals in their next game.

This isn't predicting that the team will score one or two goals, though. The model uses 1.5 as an average goal, then calculates the probabilities that a team will end up with this many goals.

The formula is P(k) = (λ^k × e^−λ) / k!

The formula might look complicated but don't let it scare you. Follow along here with the definition of what all those parts are.

P: The opportunity for something to happen.
X: The number of goals.
K: The correct number of goals being evaluated.
λ (lambda): The mean number of goals expected.
E: A fixed mathematical number.
!: A mathematical operation called factorial.

Let us use a simple example. If the expected goals are 1.5, the Poisson calculation estimates the probability of scoring zero goals, one goal, two goals, three goals and more.

Our analyst can then use the formulas for each team to produce a score prediction.

Expected goals calculation

Expected goals can be applied in two separate but connected ways. The first is statistical expected goals (xG). This tells you how good the chances a team creates are.

For example, a shot just outside an empty net would normally have a higher chance of scoring than a tough shot from long range.

Pros of Mathematical Predictions

Football betting predictions based on math have many advantages, it is especially for those who want to know more about football, not just to play.

They reduce guesswork

It helps people think with their heads instead of their hearts. Just because a football fan wants a certain club to win every game doesn't mean that team can really win them all. Mathematically speaking, we can see the maximum possibility for every possible outcome. This means we enter each match with a more open mind.

They compare between teams

Numbers allow our analyst to compare two teams through the same process. Rather than using subjective measures, our analyst can judge various statistics by comparing their strength, type of scoring and similar stats.

They help with different prediction markets

Of course you do not need to restrict yourself to game wins and away wins in your calculations. You can be able to calculate for over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals, BTTS and the correct score too.

Cons of Mathematical Predictions

Even though mathematical predictions can be useful, they also have weaknesses. We do not want our users to believe that calculations can remove every risk from football.

Football does not always follow mathematics

A team can dominate a match and still lose. It may create several good chances but fail to score, while its opponent scores from one opportunity. Remember that mathematical calculations cannot control what happens on the pitch.

Poor data can produce poor predictions

A mathematical model depends on the quality of the information used. If the data is incomplete, outdated or incorrect, the result may not be reliable.

Some models cannot understand every match situation

Sometimes a simple mathematical model can struggle to know everything about a match. Cup competitions, neutral venues, odd start times and unplanned changes could all impact a forecast.

Will I Always Win Using Mathematical Football Predictions?

No. You cannot use football betting tips and mathematical predictions to win every single time.

Let us get this straight before you start using a prediction website such as our website.

Suppose you want to make a bet between Team A and Team B. After analyzing the various statistics available, a math model suggests that the probability of Team A winning is 75%.

You may conclude that it is highly likely that Team A will win. Notice that the remaining 25% is an open possibility that Team A may draw or lose.

This is how probability works.

Football can defy the odds even when a team has the mathematical edge. A missed penalty, an own goal, a red card or a surprise individual performance can turn a game on its head.

So a goal that we have is that we don't want users to see our mathematical predictions to be a way to make guaranteed income. We want them to be a tool to make better decisions.

Another thing that is important to keep in mind is that you should not be increasing your stake just because you have a higher percentage prediction.

It is still not guaranteed with 90%. We at 365Banker wants you to bet responsibly, with research and patiently.

Do not bet any money that you cannot lose.

Frequently Asked Questions About Mathematical Football Predictions

How Accurate Are Mathematical Football Tips?

This depends on the quality of the data, the mathematical model used and the extent to which its probabilities have been tested.

Can I rely only on mathematical tips without any other analysis?

Don’t expect to count on only mathematical tips. Numbers can help you calculate what might happen but may miss the other points of a game.

Can Poisson Distribution Predict Correct Scores?

Yes. Football score can be predicted using a Poisson distribution.

Are Mathematical Football Predictions Free?

Yes our mathematical football predictions are free.

Where can I get mathematical football predictions for Today and Tomorrow?

Come to 365Banker to check out our football prediction and the bets we give out every day.